When zero hour at the negotiating table finally strikes, Israel will have huge private and public investments, and the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers, who outnumber the original Palestinian population, to support its position that Jerusalem is not negotiable.

Publisher's Note: This article written in December 1994 is so actual that we could not resist in re-publishing it. Contrary to what the Western media wants us to believe what we see in Palestine would have happened even without the Likud coalition government.

THE signing of the Declaration of Principles by the PLO and Israel has set a three-year clock in motion, slowly ticking away for the Palestinians.  Once more they are required to display an attitude of patient passivity.  This is far from the attitude Israel takes in preparing from the coming period.  A wave of frenetic construction has been unleashed to ensure that Israel can back up its well known claim to East Jerusalem with more than resolutions.  Israel is not only trying to safeguard the core accomplishments of 30 years, but to turn them into a platform for further expansion of Jewish Jerusalem.

Those who expect that the map of Jerusalem unfolded at the negotiation 'table will cover only post-1967 expanded Jerusalem will be in for a cold surprise.  'More likely it will extend from Bet Shemesh and Modi'n in the west (almost half way to Tel Aviv), to a few kilometres from Halhoul and Hebron in the South, to beyond Ramallah in the north, to within kilometres of Jericho in the cast. This vast area, which Israel conventionally considers as Metropolitan Jerusalem, comprises approximately 1,250 square km. of which three quarters are situated within the West Bank.

The likelihood that this will be the Israeli map of Jerusalem is indicated by the construction taking place in the wide surroundings of the city, as well as recurrent statements by Israeli officials such as the Minister of Housing Benyamin Ben Eliezer and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin himself.

It is important to realise the dramatic transformation that Metropolitan Jerusalem has witnessed in demographic 'and spatial terms in recent times.  In 1945, before the state of Israel was established, Jewish Jerusalem was an island isolated from its hinterland along the coast, surrounded on all sides by rural Arab villages and towns.

Barely half a century later the situation is radically different.  Although West Jerusalem is still remote from its Israeli hinterland, it is no longer surrounded by Arab communities.  Its urban elements now surround spatially insulated blocs of Arab towns and villages, rendering a city like Bethlehem an island.  This spatial insulation breaks the geographic cohesion of the Arab sections of the Metropolitan Jerusalem, causing great damage to the Palestinian community.

The map shows three major blocks of Jewish settlements in the Metropolitan area that on the one hand dramatically disrupt the traditional continuity of Arab habitation and agriculture zones, and on the other hand impose substantial containment on urban growth in the insular Arab habitation blocs.

The urban potential of the Jewish settlement bloc is substantial.  Gush Adumim has approval for plans targeting 50,000 habitants before the end of the century, Gush Etzion 100,000 inhabitants and Giz'at Ze'ev not less then 30,000.  Combined with smaller settlements like Ofra, Teqoa and Bet El, the planned growth potential within the first decade of the next century comes to approximately 200,000 Jewish settlers.

Furthermore, a glance at the map reveals that the spatial potential allows for at least double that amount.  For example, the municipality of Ma'ale Adumim awaits approval for a new master plan that could accommodate 50,000 extra residents on top of the 50,000 targeted in the presently approved master plan.

The numbers are in addition to the expansion of Jewish neighbourhoods in East Jerusalem itself.  Ten thousand housing units are presently under construction, bringing the Jewish population of East Jerusalem to over 200,000 within three years of time.

Moreover, the municipality has proposed further construction near Gilbo, one of the last open spaces in East Jerusalem.  If this construction goes ahead, another 70,000 Jewish residents will be added, bringing the total number of Jewish citizens in East Jerusalem to well over a quarter million before the end of the century.  By that time the total number of Jewish residents in the West Bank part of Metropolitan Jerusalem is likely to reach the half million mark.

The present Arab population of the West Bank part of Metropolitan Jerusalem numbers about 450,000 which is at present more then double that of the Jewish population in that area.  The proportion changes if one includes the 240,000 residents of West ' Jerusalem, resulting in a Jewish majority of 52 per cent in the entire Metropolitan Jerusalem.  The balance will move decisively in favour of the Jewish population if the growth potential outlined above is realised, resulting in a Jewish population of 710,000, a majority of 65 percent.

Some have serious doubts that Jerusalem can indeed develop into such a huge metropolitan centre, with good reason.  Jerusalem is not only hilly, far 'from the Sea, but also removed from the main population centre and with scant possibilities of work.  That may change drastically.  Two vital factors could considerably enhance the position of Jewish Jerusalem within the coming decade.

The first is the Seven Stars Plan.  It envisages a belt of suburban settlements spreading eastward out of the densely inhabited coastal strip of Israel along the Green Line.

These star-settlements will create a geographic depth, an urban hinterland adjacent to the West Bank, which could not have been done before 1967 due to its proximity with the former Jordanian border.

Two settlements in the Seven Stars Plan, though not within Metropolitan Jerusalem, will play a vital role in that city's development: To the Northwest a huge construction effort is underway in Modi'in, with a master plan targeting 250,000 inhabitants.  In the Southwest plans have been approved to expand the town of Bet Shemesh to absorb 150,000 inhabitants.  With newly constructed or upgraded highways that link these future cities with Jerusalem, their effort on the suburban settlements in the West Bank such as Giv'at Ze'ev, Efrat and Betar will be substantial.

Within easy commuting distance their industrial parks are likely to provide jobs for families that so far have been reluctant to settle in Jerusalem. The other factor enhancing Jewish Metropolitan could prove to be even more decisive, but as yet is difficult to assess- normalisation of relations between Israel and the neighbouring Arab states.  Huge markets are suddenly within reach, signalling great profit making opportunities for the business class.  Almost overnight, Jerusalem may be elevated from a position of elegant but secluded backwater to a prime business location on the doorstep of the Orient.  While providing a boost for ..Jewish Metropolitan Jerusalem, this would paradoxically relegate the Palestinian population to the margins more than ever.

When zero hour at the negotiating table finally strikes, Israel will have huge private and public investments, and the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of .,Jewish settlers, who outnumber the original Palestinian population, to support its position that Jerusalem is not negotiable.  This will give Israel vital manoeuvring room to press for what maybe offered as a compromise solution.

Both Israeli and Palestinian claims to Jerusalem emphasise historical, religious and cultural roots in the city, with one essential difference.  While that of the Palestinian is inclusive, demanding sovereignty alongside Israel, the Israeli claim is exclusive.  Having Jerusalem as an exclusive Jewish capital has been a central theme since the beginning of Zionist colonisation of Palestine.

Since occupying East Jerusalem in 1967, Israeli sovereignty over the Haram al-Sharif with its Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque has been considered fundamental in denying the legitimacy of the Palestinian demand for sovereignty, which could extend from the Haram to other parts of the West Bank.  Nor does Israel want to risk the possibility that the Green Line would become an international border, as happened with Egypt, is happening with Jordan, and in expected to happen with Syria.

At long last Israel hopes to reap the ultimate reward of the fateful handshake on the lawn of the White House in September 1993 - recognition of Israeli sovereignty within the borders of historic Palestine.  Having agreed to delay negotiations for three years, while Israeli settlement continues, the Palestinian leadership still demands a partial but equal share in the sovereignty over Jerusalem as an open city, with Israeli authority over West Jerusalem and Palestinian authority over East Jerusalem.  But the demand is asserted with a weakening voice.

Jan De Jong Reproduced by permission from The Challenge, Jerusalem, November - December 1994. Article published in Impact International, vol. 24 no. 12 - December 1994/Jumad Al Thani - Rajab 1415.